BNB has emerged as one of the most resilient altcoins in the current market landscape. While many major cryptocurrencies are still reeling from the weekend’s crash, BNB is bucking the trend, boasting an impressive increase of 11% over the last week and an eye-catching 45% surge over the past month. This standout performance becomes even more striking during a time marked by volatility and uncertainty in the crypto space.
Despite this notable rebound, analysts warn that BNB’s trajectory may not be a straightforward ascent. On-chain metrics and chart indicators suggest a potential short-term cooldown before another upward movement ensues.
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Profit-Taking Returns as Holders Lock in Gains
The first cautionary signal arises from the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric, which gauges the current profit or loss status of coin holders. Currently, BNB’s NUPL has climbed to 0.57. This threshold echoes a similar point reached on October 7, when BNB experienced a price correction of about 15%, dropping from approximately $1,300 to $1,100.
This recurring trend illustrates that when NUPL hits local highs, investors often take profits, creating a cooling-off period before the market resumes its upward momentum. With the NUPL now at a fresh local peak, observations indicate a similar short-term correction may be on the horizon.
Interestingly, behavioral patterns are already emerging from the six- to twelve-month holding segment. This segment is tracked through the HODL Waves metric, which delineates how much of a coin’s supply is held over various time spans. In this case, BNB’s six-to-twelve-month holders have drastically reduced their share from 63.89% of the supply on October 4 to only 18.15% at present.
This group typically represents investors who add conviction to rallies following early rebounds. Their recent reduction in holdings, combined with profit-taking as noted by the NUPL highs, points to the possibility that a correction is either already underway or that enthusiasm is waning prior to their potential re-entry.
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If the NUPL peak descends and this key cohort begins to accumulate BNB again, it could set the stage for BNB’s next strong rally.
BNB Price Breaks Out, But Momentum May Be Fading
From a technical standpoint, BNB has recently accomplished a significant breakthrough. The altcoin has risen above the upper trendline of a rising wedge, effectively invalidating a bearish setup that emerged during the crash. This breakout indicates robust buying interest and flips short-term sentiment into positive territory.
Currently, BNB trades around $1,340, testing the 0.382 Fibonacci extension level at $1,382. This level reflects the previous swing from a low of $930 to a high of $1,350, followed by a retracement to $1,220.
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A 12-hour close above $1,380 would reinforce the bullish scenario, potentially paving the way toward $1,430 and $1,480, thereby invalidating the perspective of a price dip. However, caution is warranted, as a bearish divergence is forming in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator that assesses the strength of price movements. Between October 10 and 12, even as BNB’s price reached higher highs, the RSI generated lower highs—a classical bearish divergence that signals weakening buying strength accompanying price increases.
This divergence serves as a common technical indicator suggesting a near-term price dip could be anticipated, particularly following a steep rally. This technical insight aligns seamlessly with signals from the on-chain data indicating profit-taking at NUPL highs and a retraction by mid-term holders.
If a pullback occurs, the initial support zone appears around the $1,320 mark, followed by a further support level at $1,220. If the price shifts below $1,220, it could send BNB toward an even steeper decline, potentially dropping to the $1,140 level.