TLDR
- Bitcoin has witnessed several rebounds recently but continues to follow an overall downward trajectory.
- On-chain data indicates that surges in short-term profits have not reversed the broader downtrend pattern.
- BTC is currently trading at approximately $83,600, reflecting a nearly 2% decline over the past week.
- Analyst Crypto Dan posits there may be potential for one final upward movement in this market cycle.
- Despite ongoing losses, short-term holders are maintaining their positions, possibly anticipating a bullish reversal.
Bitcoin has experienced a series of price rebounds in recent days, attempting to recover from an overall downward trend that has extended over several months. This has sparked renewed interest and speculation among investors and analysts alike.
In the realm of on-chain analytics, the data provided by Glassnode highlights significant trends pertinent to Bitcoin’s price dynamics. Each recent price low has been accompanied by the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio dipping below 1, a signal that indicates more market participants are taking losses rather than realizing profits. This phenomenon of loss realization typically marks a phase of seller exhaustion where the intense downward momentum starts to wane as sell-side pressure becomes absorbed within the market. Consequently, this pattern has often provided temporary support levels for Bitcoin’s price.
Following these periods of loss realization, the cryptocurrency has witnessed noteworthy price rebounds. However, despite the signs of potential recovery, a pressing question looms—do these bounces signify the beginning of a more bullish trend, or are they merely short-lived relief in an ongoing bearish market?
Long-Term Indicators Remain Bearish
When evaluating longer timeframes, the data from Glassnode presents a more somber outlook. The 90-day simple moving average of the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has been in sharp decline, even as there have been short-term spikes in profit realization. This persistent bearish trend suggests that the broader market conditions are marked by weaker liquidity and declining investor profitability, painting a less favorable picture for potential long-term growth.
From the standpoint of this pivotal indicator, the recent price rebounds do not appear to signify a shift towards bullish momentum in the larger market context. As of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $83,600, reflecting a decrease of nearly 2% over the past seven days.
Potential for One Final Push Upward
Despite the prevailing bearish signals, certain analysts are optimistic about the possibility of one last upward price movement before the current market cycle draws to a close. In a recent analysis featured in CryptoQuant, contributor Crypto Dan examined the volume ratio of Bitcoin traded over six to twelve-month periods. This metric serves as an indicator of new capital inflow into the crypto market and has historically demonstrated a strong correlation with market cycles.
Crypto Dan suggests that this volume ratio typically shows two declining phases throughout a market cycle. The initial decline marks the conclusion of the early bull phase, while the second, deeper decline signals the probable end of the overall bull cycle. Notably, Bitcoin reached a critical midpoint in March 2024, coinciding with the first significant decline in this volume ratio—an occurrence consistent with trends observed in previous cycles.
Currently, the volume ratio seems to be entering its second and final dip, which may propel Bitcoin to its peak in this market cycle before a more notable correction occurs. This could imply that despite a staggering pullback of over 23% from January’s record high of $108,786, Bitcoin might still possess the potential for an additional rally.
Interestingly, various indicators point toward Bitcoin holders perceiving the current market correction as transitory, instead of a precursor to an extended bear market. Recent analyses demonstrate that many short-term Bitcoin holders are choosing to hold their investments, even while facing losses. This behavior suggests their expectation of an impending bullish reversal.
Furthermore, data concerning net exchange flows indicates a reduction in selling pressure, laying the groundwork for a potential price recovery. Observers have noted Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of market fluctuations. Max Keiser, a cryptocurrency advisor to the Bukele Administration, has also remarked upon Bitcoin’s robustness against new tariff-based trade policies enacted by President Trump. He argues that Bitcoin may continue to serve as a hedge against pronounced inflation, even with shifts toward higher income and better job opportunities resulting from policy changes.
Trump has triggered the ‘Global Reset’
The era of globalization was a deflationary period where US workers traded jobs for very cheap consumer goods manufactured in Asia. The quality of life was not too noticeably impacted. The people who fell off the grid were ignored or…
— Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) April 3, 2025
Overall, while current market conditions exhibit caution, a range of factors suggest that Bitcoin has yet to surrender its potential for future growth. Observers will be keenly watching the emerging data and market dynamics in the coming weeks and months.