Bitcoin Price Enters 2026 with Split Expectations

The New Year is upon us, and with it come mixed expectations for Bitcoin’s price trajectory in 2026. While prominent figures like Tom Lee predict a bullish rally toward $200,000, others—including veteran trader Peter Brandt—are cautioning against premature optimism, warning of potential retests before any deeper downturns. Meanwhile, voices like YoungHoon Kim suggest that recent dips are merely manipulative moments in an overall positive trend. With analyses ranging from fear to euphoria, let’s dig deeper into the indicators on the charts and on-chain metrics that will help us gauge what might lie ahead for Bitcoin.

December Patterns and a Bottom Signal That Hasn’t Triggered Yet

As Bitcoin wraps up December 2025, it finds itself in another turbulent spot, closing in the red. Historically, such scenarios have often signaled an impending shift, as Bitcoin has flipped to green every January following a red December since 2022. This pattern set the groundwork for each significant price increase throughout 2025, including a remarkable rally that peaked at around $126,000 in October.

Currently, not unlike previous cycles, Bitcoin’s December isn’t quite vibrant. A vital metric underscoring current price behavior is the short-term holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), which indicates a profit or loss sentiment for recent buyers. We’ve found ourselves in the capitulation zone, mirroring the situation back in April 2025, which marked the beginning of an upward trend.

On November 21, short-term holders’ NUPL plummeted to −0.27, surpassing previous lows, and as of now sits around −0.14, still entrenched in capitulation territory. Although this signals a potential bottom, the market’s response has been muted.

Long-Term Holders Step Back

A crucial aspect of Bitcoin’s rallying capabilities has historically hinged on long-term holders stepping in during short-term capitulation events. This time, however, their presence appears less robust. Unlike the April 2025 uptick, when they accumulated a staggering 22,237 BTC in a single day, December accumulation has peaked much lower at about 4,862 BTC.

The diminished engagement from long-term holders is worrisome. They typically stabilize the market by absorbing supply, which sets in motion another growth phase. Currently, the cushion formed by long-term holders is considerably thinner, raising questions about what it all means for 2026.

Hunter Rogers, co-founder of TeraHash, emphasizes the significance of this group: “As long as long-term holders stay firm, the cycle survives.” But while they represent stability, recent behaviors indicate marked hesitance, preventing market rallies from gaining momentum.

Whales Go Quiet, and That Changes Everything

Another critical player in Bitcoin’s market landscape: the whales. These are large wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC, and their numbers have dwindled to yearly lows. This contrasts sharply with the rise seen leading into the April bottom, which ultimately supported the price surge toward $126,000.

The current absence of whale activity reveals a troubling gap. While short-term capitulation has emerged, it hasn’t undergone the typical absorption mechanism by long-term holders and whales. Rogers notes, “Retail still has a late reaction, while whales tend to absorb all the supply during weakness.” Their lack of participation highlights a significant risk, contributing to the market’s susceptibility to potential downturns rather than upward momentum.

What the Bitcoin Price Chart Says About 2026

Focusing on chart analysis, Bitcoin is currently dancing inside a bearish pattern called a "bear flag." This setup poses a breakdown risk of about 36%. This concern is augmented by two bearish exponential moving average (EMA) crossovers nearing their activation, which could signal weakness if any one of them occurs.

If both the 50-day EMA and the 100-day EMA cross below the 20-day EMA and 200-day EMA, the combined signals could amplify selling pressures. Currently, Bitcoin is testing crucial support near $86,420; if price movements trend south without whale participation or interest from long-term holders, we may be facing a serious threat to market stability.

Rogers explains that Bitcoin’s future price movements will largely depend on the “behavior around cost and risk.” Right now, with whale activity low and short-term volatility high, there’s no strong hand to absorb the drops, which has cast uncertainty over the overall market outlook.

What’s Next For BTC in 2026?

Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture as we kick off 2026. The stage appears set for pivotal changes, characterized by the following points:

• Bottom signal has appeared (short-term holder capitulation).
• Demand has yet to materialize (lack of whale and long-term holder support).
• A bearish chart setup casts a shadow over market trends and prospects.

Upcoming price action centered around two crucial levels could prove instrumental in determining Bitcoin’s fate. A breakout above $105,000 could reignite bullish sentiment and potentially lead to new highs, whereas a breakdown below $83,300 could signal a fresh dip, spiraling into deeper weaknesses.

As we venture into 2026, the battle between fear and hope for Bitcoin continues to unfold, leaving investors on the edge of their seats, watching closely for signs that may signal the next significant trend.