Thinking about Swapping Bitcoin for MARA Holdings?
After peaking at $124,774 per coin on October 7, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has taken a significant hit, closing at $86,413 on December 16, marking a 31% drop. Simultaneously, MARA Holdings (MARA) has plunged 53% since mid-October. With this drastic sell-off, many investors may be contemplating whether to switch their focus from Bitcoin to MARA, especially if they foresee a recovery in the cryptocurrency market. Understanding the dynamics of crypto mining and what matters now for investors is essential.
How MARA Became a Bitcoin-First Business
MARA’s evolution into a cryptocurrency mining specialist reflects its commitment to the digital asset landscape. Initially known as Marathon Patent Group, the company pivoted towards Bitcoin in early 2021, purchasing significant assets, including $150 million worth of Bitcoin and mining equipment. This transformation led to a rebranding as Marathon Digital Holdings, which emphasized its new cryptocurrency focus.
The stock has historically mirrored Bitcoin’s volatility—when BTC soared, MARA climbed higher, and in bearish phases, it tumbled even more. Essentially, owning MARA has often been like amplifying the exposure to Bitcoin.
The Math Changed for MARA
However, the correlation between Bitcoin and MARA shifted sharply in Spring 2024. Several key developments altered the landscape:
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs: The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot Bitcoin ETFs, which funneled significant capital into the market, further boosting Bitcoin prices.
- The Bitcoin Halving: In April 2024, the notable halving event halved miners’ rewards from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125 Bitcoin. This crucial shift initially seemed favorable for Bitcoin itself but proved challenging for mining operations. The effectively lower inflation rate for Bitcoin coupled with increased competition in mining made it more difficult for companies like MARA to maintain profitability.
Following the halving, MARA’s daily Bitcoin production dropped from about 28.8 to 24.5, while mining costs surged by 82%. While quarterly revenues rose due to soaring Bitcoin prices, the costs of production outpaced revenue growth, creating a challenging scenario.
MARA’s Next New Plan: Data Centers, Power Sales, and AI
In light of these challenges, MARA Holdings is innovating. In August 2024, the company rebranded again, reflecting an expansion in its business model to include energy sales and data center services, tapping into the booming AI sector that shares infrastructure with crypto mining.
This strategic shift may allow MARA to detach its fortunes somewhat from Bitcoin’s direct price movements. The company is still heavily involved in Bitcoin mining but is also integrating AI infrastructure into its mining facilities. This diversification could lead to a more stable revenue stream in the future, although it remains in its early stages.
MARA’s Discount Comes With Strings Attached
Investors considering MARA should weigh its current valuation against its evolving business strategy. The company’s flexible operating model could offer new growth avenues as it pivots between AI and Bitcoin mining, depending on market conditions. However, entering the AI sector means competing with much larger firms, making this transition fraught with challenges.
While MARA still primarily engages in Bitcoin mining, potential investors should recognize that it is navigating into unfamiliar territory. Currently, the company still relies heavily on Bitcoin-related revenue, without yet having substantial AI contracts in place.
Personal Insights on Investment Strategy
As an investor, you may find yourself in a similar position to mine, holding a small number of MARA shares relative to a larger Bitcoin investment. While the notion of diversifying investments into companies like MARA may seem appealing, my direct exposure to Bitcoin remains a key priority. The ongoing challenges facing Bitcoin miners—soaring costs amid fluctuating rewards—are compelling reasons to remain cautious.
MARA’s potential long-term sustainability plan may indeed present a worthwhile investment at today’s lower stock prices. However, my inclination is to double down on Bitcoin itself, particularly through established instruments like ETFs, instead of significantly increasing my stake in MARA during this dip.
As the landscape for Bitcoin mining evolves, keeping a close eye on both MARA and Bitcoin can yield important insights for making informed investment decisions. The reality remains that while hurdles exist, the core of crypto investment often still pivots around the performance of Bitcoin itself.